Réf. Reinhard & al 2005 - A

Référence bibliographique complète
REINHARD E., REBETEZ M., SCHAEPFER M. Recent climate change : Rethinking drought in the context of Forest Fire Research in Ticino, South of Switzerland. Theoretical and Apllied Climatology, 2005, 9 p.

Mots-clés
Forest fires, critical fire development season, drought pattern linked to forest fires, Ticino

Organismes / Contact
Institut Fédéral de Recherche WSL, Case Postale 96 CH-1015, Lausanne, Suisse. rebetez@wsl.ch

(1) - Paramètre(s) atmosphérique(s) modifié(s)
(2) - Elément(s) du milieu impacté(s)
(3) - Type(s) d'aléa impacté(s)
(3) - Sous-type(s) d'aléa
Temperature, precipitation, humidity, sunshine duration, wind effects  
Forest fire
 

Pays / Zone
Massif / Secteur
Site(s) d'étude
Exposition
Altitude
Période(s) d'observation
Switzerland Southern Alps, Ticino Meteorological stations of Lugano and Lucarno   317-2500m asl 1971-2003

(1) - Modifications des paramètres atmosphériques
Reconstitutions  
Observations
Both minimum and maximum temperatures began to increase markedly in the mid 1980s, while the 1970s and the first part of the 1980s were quite stable.
Winter and the beginning of spring are the periods of the year with least precipitations in the Ticino area. The overall precipitation exhibited no significiant annual trend. This result is consistent with previous studies such as Rebetez, 1999 and Schmidli and Frei, 2003.
Relative humidity has decreased considerably on monthly and seasonal basis.
Absolute sunshine duration during Critical Fire Develpment Season significantly incrased by +13.8 hours (+4.9%) per decade.
No annual or seasonal significant trends in Foehn events.
Modélisations
 
Hypothèses
 

Informations complémentaires (données utilisées, méthode, scénarios, etc.)

Analysis of data from the two meteorological stations of Lugano and Lucarno have been made for the 1971-2003 period. Relative humidity was recorded at 7am, 1pm, 7pm in both locations.


(2) - Impacts du changement climatique sur le milieu naturel
Reconstitutions
 
Observations
 
Modélisations
 
Hypothèses
 

Sensibilité du milieu à des paramètres climatiques
Informations complémentaires (données utilisées, méthode, scénarios, etc.)
   

(3) - Impacts du changement climatique sur l'aléa
Reconstitutions  
Observations
The fire proneness related to climatic drought increased over the period 1971-2003 in Ticino. The end of winter and early spring spring are when most forest fires occur.
Fire occurence per month (1971-2002) : Peak of events between January and April with the highest number of evens for the April month (more than 500 events). Annual values are of little use when considering drought in a context of forest fires. Intra-annual phenomena are more appropriate. Considering climatic variables other than precipitations has proved valuable, as these variables exhibit interesting trends that are likely to play important roles in fire proneness.
Modélisations
 
Hypothèses
 

Paramètre de l'aléa
Sensibilité du paramètres de l'aléa à des paramètres climatiques
Informations complémentaires (données utilisées, méthode, scénarios, etc.)
 
 

(4) - Remarques générales
 

(5) - Syntèses et préconisations

Agro-forestry will need to rethink its role in reducting fuels within the forest boundaries.