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Réf. Jacol D. & al. 2013

Référence bibliographique

JACOB, D., PETERSEN, J., EGGERT, B. et al. EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research. Reg Environ Change (2014) 14: 563.

Abstract: A new high-resolution regional climate change ensemble has been established for Europe within the World Climate Research Program Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) initiative. The first set of simulations with a horizontal resolution of 12.5 km was completed for the new emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 with more simulations expected to follow. The aim of this paper is to present this data set to the different communities active in regional climate modelling, impact assessment and adaptation. The EURO-CORDEX ensemble results have been compared to the SRES A1B simulation results achieved within the ENSEMBLES project. The large-scale patterns of changes in mean temperature and precipitation are similar in all three scenarios, but they differ in regional details, which can partly be related to the higher resolution in EURO-CORDEX. The results strengthen those obtained in ENSEMBLES, but need further investigations. The analysis of impact indices shows that for RCP8.5, there is a substantially larger change projected for temperature-based indices than for RCP4.5. The difference is less pronounced for precipitation-based indices. Two effects of the increased resolution can be regarded as an added value of regional climate simulations. Regional climate model simulations provide higher daily precipitation intensities, which are completely missing in the global climate model simulations, and they provide a significantly different climate change of daily precipitation intensities resulting in a smoother shift from weak to moderate and high intensities.

Mots-clés
Regional climate change , Impact indices,EURO-CORDEX,Heat wave,Heavy precipitation,Dry spells

Organismes / Contact
  • Climate Service Center (CSC), Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Fischertwiete 1, 20095 Hamburg, Germany
  • Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPIM), Bundesstr. 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
  • Météo-France/CNRS, Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM-GAME), 42, Avenue Gaspard Coriolis, 31057 Toulouse Cedex 1, France
  • Danish Climate Centre, Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), Lyngbyvej 100, 2100 Copenhagen, Denmark
  • Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands
  • Deltares, PO Box 177, 2600 MH Delft, The Netherlands
  • Institut National de l’Environnement Industriel et des Risques (INERIS), 60550 Verneuil-en-Halatte, France
  • Environmental Meteorology, Brandenburg University of
    Technology, Burger Chaussee 2, 03013 Cottbus, Germany
  • Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development (IERSD), National Observatory of Athens, 118 10 Thissio, Greece
  • Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change and Institute for Geophysics, Astrophysics, and Meteorology, University of Graz, Brandhofgasse 5, 8010 Graz, Austria
  • Laboratoire de Me´te´orologie Dynamique (IPSL), Ecole Polytechnique, 91128 Palaiseau Cedex, France
  • Corresponding author: daniela.jacob@hzg.de

(1) - Paramètre(s) atmosphérique(s) modifié(s)
(2) - Elément(s) du milieu impacté(s)
(3) - Type(s) d'aléa impacté(s)
(3) - Sous-type(s) d'aléa
mean temperature and precipitations      

Pays / Zone
Massif / Secteur
Site(s) d'étude
Exposition
Altitude
Période(s) d'observation
           

(1) - Modifications des paramètres atmosphériques
Reconstitutions
A new high-resolution regional climate change ensemble has been established for Europe within the World Climate Research Program Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) initiative. The first set of simulations with a horizontal resolution of 12.5 km was completed for the new emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 with more simulations expected to follow
Observations
 
Modélisations
  Two effects of the increased resolution can be regarded as an added value of regional climate simulations. Regional climate model simulations provide higher daily precipitation intensities, which are completely missing in the global climate model simulations, and they provide a significantly different climate change of daily precipitation intensities resulting in a smoother shift from weak to moderate and high intensities
Hypothèses
 

Informations complémentaires (données utilisées, méthode, scénarios, etc.)
 

(2) - Effets du changement climatique sur le milieu naturel
Reconstitutions
 
Observations
 
Modélisations
 
Hypothèses
 

Sensibilité du milieu à des paramètres climatiques
Informations complémentaires (données utilisées, méthode, scénarios, etc.)
 
 

(3) - Effets du changement climatique sur l'aléa
Reconstitutions
 
Observations
 
Modélisations
 
Hypothèses
 

Paramètre de l'aléa
Sensibilité du paramètres de l'aléa à des paramètres climatiques
Informations complémentaires (données utilisées, méthode, scénarios, etc.)
 
 
 

(4) - Remarques générales
 

(5) - Syntèses et préconisations
 

Références citées :

 


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