Réf. Gruner 2004 - A

Référence bibliographique complète

GRUNER, U. 2004. Klima und Sturzereignisse in Vergangenheit und Zukunft. Bulletin für angewandte Geologie, Vol. 9/2, 23–37. [PDF]

Abstract: About 800 rock fall events on the north side of the Alps of Switzerland have been evaluated in the last 500 years. There is no evident correlation between humid respectively warm periods and an accumulation of rock fall events between 1500 and 1900. In the 20th century it became apparent that there was en increase of rock fall events in winter during the cold period between 1950 and 1980 due to rock mass contraction respectively joint expansion. The amount was higher than in the warm periods between 1900 and 1950 and especially in the years since 1980 in spite of increasing intensive precipitation. A general increase in rock fall events due to the warmer climate has not been discernible and is not expected within the next 50 years. In future, however, the warmer climate will cause a further decrease in rock fall events in winter and a light increase in summer due to more extreme precipitation.

Mots-clés

Chutes de pierres - Glissements de terrain - Changement climatique - Changements de température - Cycle gel-dégel - Pression de l'eau dans les fissures - Prévision des éboulements

 

Organismes / Contact

• c/o Kellerhals + Haefeli AG, Kapellenstr. 22, 3011 Bern, ueli.gruner@k-h.ch

 

(1) - Paramètre(s) atmosphérique(s) modifié(s)

(2) - Elément(s) du milieu impacté(s)

(3) - Type(s) d'aléa impacté(s)

(3) - Sous-type(s) d'aléa

Temperature, Precipitation

 

Rockfalls

 

 

Pays / Zone

Massif / Secteur

Site(s) d'étude

Exposition

Altitude

Période(s) d'observation

Swiss Alps

 

 

 

 

1500-1990

 

(1) - Modifications des paramètres atmosphériques

Reconstitutions

 

Observations

 

Modélisations

 

Hypothèses

 

 

Informations complémentaires (données utilisées, méthode, scénarios, etc.)

 

 

(2) - Effets du changement climatique sur le milieu naturel

Reconstitutions

 

Observations

 

Modélisations

 

Hypothèses

 

 

Sensibilité du milieu à des paramètres climatiques

Informations complémentaires (données utilisées, méthode, scénarios, etc.)

 

 

 

(3) - Effets du changement climatique sur l'aléa

Reconstitutions

About 800 rock fall events on the north side of the Alps of Switzerland have been evaluated in the last 500 years. There is no evident correlation between humid respectively warm periods and an accumulation of rock fall events between 1500 and 1900.

Observations

In the 20th century it became apparent that there was en increase of rock fall events in winter during the cold period between 1950 and 1980 due to rock mass contraction respectively joint expansion. The amount was higher than in the warm periods between 1900 and 1950 and especially in the years since 1980 in spite of increasing intensive precipitation. A general increase in rock fall events due to the warmer climate has not been discernible.

Modélisations

 

Hypothèses

A general increase in rock fall events due to the warmer climate has not been discernible and is not expected within the next 50 years. In future, however, the warmer climate will cause a further decrease in rock fall events in winter and a light increase in summer due to more extreme precipitation.

 

Paramètre de l'aléa

Sensibilité des paramètres de l'aléa à des paramètres climatiques

Informations complémentaires (données utilisées, méthode, scénarios, etc.)

 

 

See the study [in german]

 

(4) - Remarques générales

 

 

(5) - Syntèses et préconisations

 

Références citées :