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Réf. Alfieri & al. 2015 - A

Référence bibliographique
ALFIERI L., BUREK P., FEYEN L., FORZIERI G., (2015) Global warming increases the frequency of river floods in Europe, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 2247-2260. DOI : 10.5194/hess-19-2247-2015

Abstract : EURO-CORDEX (Coordinated Downscaling Experiment over Europe), a new generation of downscaled climate projections, has become available for climate change impact studies in Europe. New opportunities arise in the investigation of potential effects of a warmer world on meteorological and hydrological extremes at regional scales. In this work, an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX RCP8.5 scenarios is used to drive a distributed hydrological model and assess the projected changes in flood hazard in Europe through the current century. Changes in magnitude and frequency of extreme streamflow events are investigated by statistical distribution fitting and peak over threshold analysis. A consistent method is proposed to evaluate the agreement of ensemble projections. Results indicate that the change in frequency of discharge extremes is likely to have a larger impact on the overall flood hazard as compared to the change in their magnitude. On average, in Europe, flood peaks with return periods above 100 years are projected to double in frequency within 3 decades.

Mots-clés
 

Organismes / Contact

European Commission – Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy


(1) - Paramètre(s) atmosphérique(s) modifié(s)
(2) - Elément(s) du milieu impacté(s)
(3) - Type(s) d'aléa impacté(s)
(3) - Sous-type(s) d'aléa
Precipitation River river floods  

Pays / Zone
Massif / Secteur
Site(s) d'étude
Exposition
Altitude
Période(s) d'observation
Europe          

(1) - Modifications des paramètres atmosphériques
Reconstitutions
 
Observations

Changes in precipitation :

Mean annual precipitation : prYear
Mean annual maximum daily precipitation : prMAX

The ensemble of climate projections agrees on up to a 30% reduction of prYear in southern European countries, particularly in the Iberian Peninsula, Greece and southern Italy. Conversely, an increasing trend is projected over north-eastern Europe, with the largest changes in Iceland and Scandinavia.

 

Modélisations
 
Hypothèses
 

Informations complémentaires (données utilisées, méthode, scénarios, etc.)



(2) - Effets du changement climatique sur le milieu naturel
Reconstitutions
 
Observations

 

Modélisations
Changes in streamflow :

Mean of the average streamflow : Q

Changes in Q reproduce similar patterns as those of the mean annual precipitation in Fig. 4, with negative changes in southern Europe, positive in northern and eastern Europe, and uncertain behaviour in the western part of central Europe. In the considered study region, Q is projected to increase in 73% of the river network by 2080, while the overall mean relative change is 8 %.
Changes of QMAX and Q100 in the three future time slices have similar patterns. Although in the majority of the river network the projected changes have large uncertainty (CV>1), some significant trends are found, particularly in 2080, where in 38 (for QMAX) and 27% (for Q100) of the river network the ensemble of climate projections points towards a clear change from the baseline.

Frequency of extreme events :

In the future scenarios, changes are particularly consistent in the north-eastern Europe, where a reduction of the frequency of extreme events is clearly visible since the first time slice. In 2080, the pattern of projected relative changes looks similar to that of QMAX in Fig. 6, though with a wider range, where 50% of grid points exhibit changes in absolute value larger than 35 %.

 

Results of this work indicate strong model agreement in the projected change of average inflow and runoff in the European river network. By the end of the century, both mean annual precipitation and average discharge are projected to decrease in southern Europe and to increase in north-eastern Europe, while in central Europe the ensemble of projections does not agree on a specific trend. Projected changes in extreme values are on average less significant and show different spatial patterns for precipitation and discharge.
As a result, we found a reduction of peak discharges in southern Spain, Scandinavia and Baltic countries, while a large portion of central Europe including the British Isles are likely to experience a progressive increase in the magnitude and frequency of discharge peaks.
Interestingly, the expected annual frequency of events with peak discharge above the 100- year return period is projected to rise significantly in most of the considered European countries.
The projected figures are unsettling, showing significant increase in the frequency of extreme events larger than 100% in 21 out of 37 European countries since the first time slice (2006–2035), and a further deterioration in the subsequent future. These findings relate to a range of event magnitude mostly above the average protection level of European rivers, hence they have serious implications on the associated flood risk and the potential impact on business and society.

Hypothèses
 

Sensibilité du milieu à des paramètres climatiques
Informations complémentaires (données utilisées, méthode, scénarios, etc.)
 

 


(3) - Effets du changement climatique sur l'aléa
Reconstitutions
 
Observations
 
Modélisations
 
Hypothèses
 

Paramètre de l'aléa
Sensibilité du paramètres de l'aléa à des paramètres climatiques
Informations complémentaires (données utilisées, méthode, scénarios, etc.)
 
 
 

(4) - Remarques générales
 

(5) - Syntèses et préconisations
 

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